The Edmonton Oilers are on the verge of clinching their sixth consecutive playoff berth, needing just six more points — any combination of three wins in their final six games or three Nashville losses — to officially punch their ticket. With that near-certainty in hand, attention is turning to who Edmonton might face when the Stanley Cup Playoffs open in a few weeks.
Here's a look at the four teams most likely to meet the Oilers in the first round, and what makes each one dangerous — or vulnerable.
Vegas Golden Knights — Most Likely Opponent
The Golden Knights are the current frontrunners to draw Edmonton in round one, and there's a certain familiarity there: the Oilers eliminated Vegas in the second round of last year's playoffs.
It hasn't been a pretty season in the desert. Vegas holds a 34-42 straight-up record with six games remaining — meaning they're mathematically locked into a losing season. They've survived largely on the strength of a weak Pacific Division and 16 loser points collected along the way.
Strengths: Despite the disappointing record, the Knights still carry serious star power. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, and Shea Theodore form a formidable core, with solid depth from Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Noah Hanifin. That group could make Vegas a tougher out than their standing suggests.
Weaknesses: Vegas is a slow team, and that's cost them all season — they give up a dangerous number of rush chances and tend to compound mistakes under pressure. More critically, they've received some of the worst goaltending in the league, posting the worst five-on-five save percentage in the NHL this season.
Utah Mammoth — Second Most Likely
If Edmonton wins the Pacific Division, they'll face the top wild card team — and Utah has that spot all but sewn up. Only a catastrophic collapse could open the door for San Jose, Los Angeles, or Nashville to swoop in.
Strengths: Utah has quietly put together a well-rounded team. They boast six different 20-goal scorers and rank eighth in the league in five-on-five offence. Goaltender Karel Vejmelka has been solid all season, posting a .899 save percentage with 9.7 goals saved above expected. This is a team that can beat anyone on a given night.
Weaknesses: Inexperience is the most frequently cited concern surrounding this franchise, and their power play has been underwhelming all year. Beyond those two areas, Utah looks like a genuinely dangerous opponent on paper.
San Jose Sharks — The Surprise Contender
Perhaps the most surprising development down the Pacific Division stretch run: San Jose sits at 79 points, tied with both the Kings and Predators, but holds a game in hand on both. The Sharks are very much alive for the second wild card spot.
Their remaining schedule is difficult, however — only three of their final eight games come against eliminated teams, which puts them at a disadvantage compared to Los Angeles.
Strengths: The Sharks' entire identity runs through 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini, a legitimate MVP candidate in his first full NHL season. Goaltender Yaroslav Akarov has shown the ability to steal games when he's dialled in — the kind of unpredictable wildcard that can shift a short playoff series.
Weaknesses: The numbers away from Celebrini are sobering. San Jose is a staggering minus-40 at five-on-five when their young star is off the ice. Their five-on-five defence has been a persistent problem all season. If Edmonton drew San Jose, it would likely be a brief series.
Los Angeles Kings — A Long Shot
The Kings are still technically in contention to overtake Vegas, and their remaining schedule — which includes matchups against Vancouver, Toronto, and Calgary — does give them a puncher's chance if they run the table. With only 30 wins on the season, however, that's a significant ask.
Strengths: Goaltending has been LA's calling card all year. Both Darcy Kuemper and Anton Forsberg have been excellent, and the Kings rank seventh in five-on-five save percentage. Their expected goals numbers are respectable despite questions about the blue line.
Weaknesses: Offence — plain and simple. The Kings rank 29th in the league in five-on-five goals-for per 60 minutes. The hope was that the addition of Artemi Panarin, alongside Kevin Fiala, would inject some scoring pop — but Fiala's Olympic injury meant fans never got to see that combination in action. There's little reason to expect a sudden offensive awakening in the playoffs.
For Oilers fans, there's at least one piece of good news regardless of the outcome: after four consecutive first-round matchups with Los Angeles, Edmonton appears virtually certain to face a new opponent when the postseason begins. Whether that opponent is Vegas, Utah, San Jose, or the Kings in a major upset, Edmonton enters as the heavy favourite in any of those series.
Source: OilersNation. Original analysis by Tyler Yaremchuk.