Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is offering blunt advice to Canadian negotiators grappling with U.S. trade tensions: quit overreacting to every tariff threat and recognize that President Donald Trump operates with multiple negotiating exit strategies.
Speaking as a keynote presenter at the New North America Summit in Calgary, Smith laid out her assessment of Trump's negotiating playbook—and why Canada has been getting it wrong.
"He always had a plan A, a plan B and plan C — all of which benefited him," Smith said Monday. "He has his moon shot, but he also has a 'this is pretty good,' and then he has an 'I'll settle for this.'"
The Alberta premier, who has met with Trump twice during his second term, argues that Canadian leaders misread the president's public pronouncements as final positions rather than opening negotiating moves. That emotional response—splashed across media and advertising—plays directly into Trump's hands.
"I don't think we've understood that he always puts his moon shot out there, and then we panic and freak out with ads and overwrought commentary, but that is just a negotiating style that he has," Smith explained.
Finding Common Ground in Trade
Despite the turbulent landscape—marked by sector-specific tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) ahead of a July 1 renewal deadline—Smith sees a pathway forward built on mutual respect and realistic deal-making.
"I think we're now beginning to settle down and realize there is a way for us to get to a win-win, but the Americans are never going to agree to a deal where they feel they've lost ground."
One flashpoint Smith highlighted: the Canadian GST. American negotiators view Canada's federal sales tax as an unfair advantage, since the United States has no national sales tax. From their perspective, Ottawa collects a five-per-cent cut on every American product crossing the border.
"They really, really hate national sales taxes, value-added sales taxes, because they do not have a national sales tax in the United States," Smith said.
As trade negotiations enter a critical phase, Smith's message is clear: Canada must match Trump's strategic sophistication with its own patience and realism—and stop treating negotiating positions as declarations of war.
This article is based on reporting from CBC Calgary covering the New North America Summit proceedings in Calgary.