Alberta's government has commissioned a major economic study examining what it would cost the province to separate from Canada, marking an escalation in the ongoing independence debate that has gripped provincial politics.
The University of Calgary's School of Public Policy has been tasked with conducting the analysis, with the provincial government also establishing an expert advisory panel to review findings and offer independent assessment. The combined cost of the research and panel could reach $1.5 million, according to Finance Minister Jason Nixon's office.
"It is important that Albertans make this decision based on clear and factual information given the significant potential impacts it could have on their lives, businesses and futures," said Juliana Rodriguez, press secretary to the Finance Minister, in a statement to media.
The study will assume separation is legally possible and calculate the costs associated with Alberta assuming responsibility for federal services currently provided to the province. These include passport production, aviation regulation, First Nations health and social benefits, military operations, national park management, RCMP services, and federal tax collection.
High-Profile Panel Members Assembled
The advisory panel is being led by prominent economist Jack Mintz, who has regularly advised Alberta's conservative governments on economic matters. The group also includes Janice MacKinnon, a former NDP finance minister in Saskatchewan; Ted Morton, former Progressive Conservative finance minister in Alberta; Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta; and Alex Pourbaix, board chair of Cenovus Energy.
Morton's inclusion is notable given his role as a signatory to the 2001 "Firewall Letter" sent by then-Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper to former Alberta premier Ralph Klein, which outlined steps to increase provincial autonomy from federal jurisdiction.
Rigorous Timeline for Public Engagement
Martha Hall Findlay, director of the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy and a former Member of Parliament, said the research team is currently identifying economists and external experts to conduct the detailed analysis.
"It has to be a good report, and it has to be done in time for Albertans to really engage in the discussions necessary for informed votes in the referendum," Hall Findlay told CBC News.
The university will not examine the legal dimensions of potential secession, focusing instead on economic implications. The provincial government emphasized that the advisory panel's involvement "will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts."
The study comes amid heightened political tension over Alberta's relationship with Ottawa and reflects growing public interest in independence discussions across the province. Many Albertans are actively engaging in these conversations online—Calgary Forums has seen considerable discussion around the topic from residents seeking to understand potential impacts.
This article is based on reporting from CBC Calgary and The Canadian Press.