Prime Minister Mark Carney has signalled renewed momentum on Alberta's long-sought oil pipeline ambitions, declaring in his first major media sit-down that a new energy corridor is "more likely than not" to move forward.
Speaking with The Canadian Press on Friday, Carney emphasized that increased global demand for secure energy supplies—driven partly by international tensions—combined with Canada's strategic need to access Asian markets, has tilted the scales in favour of pipeline development.
"It's all part of a bigger package. We're making progress on that bigger package," Carney said, referencing a memorandum of understanding his government inked with Alberta late last year. "Part of our job is to figure out ways to make that work, to make it work that's combined with reducing the emissions associated with oil."
Carney stressed that while the project remains "more probable than possible," significant groundwork remains. "None of that says it's certain. Still a lot of work to be done," he cautioned.
Multiple Routes on the Table
While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly expressed her preference for a northern corridor to British Columbia's coast, Carney left the door open to alternative pathways that could face fewer regulatory obstacles.
"There are multiple routes where there could be a pipeline," Carney said, suggesting flexibility in route selection. According to Globe and Mail reporting citing unnamed federal sources, Ottawa appears inclined toward a southern route that would encounter fewer environmental challenges and reduced Indigenous opposition.
The Prime Minister also referenced the recent U.S. approval of the Bridger Pipeline expansion as a potential model for alternative corridors. President Donald Trump signed the presidential permit earlier this week, marking a partial revival of the scrapped Keystone XL project.
Industry Still Waiting in the Wings
Despite the optimistic political signals emerging from Ottawa, analysts note the project faces one critical hurdle: an energy company willing to finance and construct it. While government-level enthusiasm appears to be building, major industry players have remained cautious about committing billions to pipeline infrastructure amid ongoing regulatory and environmental debates.
Carney also confirmed Canada would not weaponize energy or critical minerals exports during upcoming trade negotiations with the United States—a statement that may temper some expectations about using pipeline leverage as a diplomatic tool.
For Alberta's energy sector, Carney's remarks represent the clearest federal commitment yet to exploring new export infrastructure, though the path from political support to actual construction remains uncertain.
This article is based on reporting from Global Calgary and The Canadian Press.