Premier Danielle Smith is cautiously optimistic about Alberta's chances of securing a new pipeline after meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Ottawa on Friday.
The shift in Smith's language—moving from "if" a deal gets signed to "when" a deal gets signed—signals her improved confidence following the high-stakes discussion with the federal government.
"This morning I said 'if' a deal gets signed, and afterwards I said 'when' a deal gets signed. So that is an indication of my improved level of confidence after talking through some of the areas that we found that were of disagreement," Smith told reporters in the nation's capital.
The potential breakthrough comes at a critical moment for Alberta. The province is navigating separatist momentum—a petition calling for a referendum on separation has gathered more than 300,000 signatures—and Smith sees the pipeline negotiations as an opportunity to demonstrate to Albertans that federalism still works.
Carbon Pricing Remains a Sticking Point
Alberta and Ottawa are hammering out details of an energy and environment pact designed to resolve longstanding disagreements over oil and gas production and climate regulations. The new bitumen pipeline would only move forward if several conditions are met, including requirements for carbon capture and storage technology.
Smith said one of the remaining obstacles is the timeline for implementing a $130 per tonne industrial carbon price—an issue that has been "really at the heart of the discussions."
"I think we had a meeting of the minds today on a few of the outstanding issues. And I hope to have something more firm to announce very soon," Smith said.
Both Smith and Carney acknowledged progress during a Friday photo opportunity, though they avoided directly addressing the pipeline question in their public remarks.
Timeline Pushes Forward
The original April 1 deadline to complete the memorandum of understanding has been extended to July 1, giving negotiators more runway to reach an agreement. Carney previously told The Canadian Press that a new pipeline is now "more probable than possible," partly due to global energy market disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran.
Industry observers and Albertans alike are watching closely. Smith acknowledged the growing impatience from both quarters.
"I know industry is getting a bit impatient, Albertans are getting a little bit impatient. And if we're going to move forward with that MOU, I hope it happens in the next number of days," Smith said.
A court order is currently blocking verification of the separatist petition's signatures while a judge considers a legal challenge from Alberta First Nations, which argues the petition process violates treaty rights. A decision is expected soon.
This article was adapted from reporting by the Lethbridge Herald. Read the original story.