As Canada and the United States remain locked in an escalating trade war, Democratic politicians south of the border are betting that November's mid-term elections could fundamentally shift the balance of power—and potentially ease the tariff burden hammering Canadian businesses.
The stakes are enormous. Trump's tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and consumer goods have rippled across North America, affecting everything from aerospace manufacturing to distillery exports. But some U.S. Democrats argue that a strong electoral showing could change the political calculus in Washington.
"This is just a tax on Americans"
Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego is among those sounding the alarm. In recent comments, Gallego characterized Trump's tariff regime as nothing more than a hidden tax on American consumers and businesses.
"I think it'll send a message to the White House and to other Republicans that this type of tariff, especially with close friends, is just not something that Americans want," Gallego said. "We are adding a tax on a lot of goods that are coming from Canada that are unnecessary."
Gallego points to his home state's aerospace sector as a cautionary tale—Arizona manufacturers depend heavily on Canadian steel and aluminum, materials now subject to Trump's tariffs. The economic ripple effects, he warns, could undermine reindustrialization goals rather than achieve them.
The Manufacturing Rebound That Isn't
Recent economic data supports Gallego's concerns. A TD Bank report released last month found that while the U.S. has seen a slight manufacturing uptick, the gains remain fragile. Elevated energy costs, tariff-related supply pressures, and tighter credit conditions are limiting growth.
"Manufacturing should remain a modest contributor to growth, but the evidence does not yet point to a self-sustaining or economy-wide industrial resurgence," the report concluded.
For Canadian exporters watching from north of the border, the message is sobering: Trump's tariff strategy isn't delivering the promised industrial renaissance—it's simply adding costs.
Congress Could "Throw a Wrench" in Trump's Plans
Maine Governor Janet Mills sees November as a potential turning point. If Democrats gain control of Congress, she argues, legislators could reassert their constitutional authority over taxation and tariffs.
"If the Democrats win both chambers, it will throw a wrench in the works for the president since Congress can take back their power over taxation and tariffs," Mills told reporters.
But there's a significant legal complication. Trump's current tariffs rely on Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act—a provision that gives the president broad unilateral power with virtually no Congressional oversight. Unlike Trump's earlier Section 122 tariffs, Section 338 includes no built-in checks and balances.
Some Congressional members have already introduced legislation to repeal Section 338 entirely, but such efforts face an uphill battle in a Republican-controlled Congress.
The Republican Dilemma
Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, giving Trump extraordinary latitude to pursue his tariff agenda. However, behind closed doors, some GOP politicians reportedly worry that escalating trade tensions could damage their own re-election prospects, particularly in states like Arizona and Michigan that depend heavily on cross-border trade.
As the November elections approach, the political pressure is mounting. For Canada—facing a 13-to-1 economic size disadvantage against the United States—the outcome could prove decisive in determining whether tariffs remain a permanent feature of North American trade or whether Congressional Democrats can restore more balanced trade relations.
The next 60 days will likely prove crucial for Canadian exporters, manufacturers, and workers whose livelihoods depend on cross-border commerce.
This article was adapted from reporting by CBC Politics. For the complete original story, visit CBC News Politics.