The escalating trade war between Canada and the United States could reach a turning point this November—if Democrats manage to shift the balance of power in Washington.
While both nations remain locked in their tariff standoff, influential U.S. Democratic politicians are arguing that a strong midterm showing could fundamentally change how President Trump approaches trade negotiations with Canada.
Democrats See Election as Opportunity to Check Tariff Power
"I think it'll send a message to the White House and to other Republicans that this type of tariff, especially with close friends, is just not something that Americans want," Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego said in a recent television interview.
Gallego characterized the tariffs as nothing more than a hidden tax on American consumers and businesses. "We are adding a tax on a lot of goods that are coming from Canada that are unnecessary," he explained, pointing to the burden on his state's critical aerospace manufacturing sector.
Maine Governor Janet Mills echoed the sentiment, suggesting that Democratic control of Congress could provide the leverage needed to curtail the president's tariff authority. "If the Democrats win both chambers, it will throw a wrench in the works for the president since Congress can take back their power over taxation and tariffs," Mills told reporters.
Economic Concerns Mount on Both Sides of the Border
Recent analysis from TD Bank suggests the tariff strategy isn't delivering promised results. While the U.S. has seen modest manufacturing improvements, the bank's report warns that "elevated energy costs, tariff-related input pressures, and tighter financial conditions are likely to limit the breadth and durability of the expansion."
"Manufacturing should remain a modest contributor to growth, but the evidence does not yet point to a self-sustaining or economy-wide industrial resurgence," TD Bank concluded.
The tariffs have already sparked retaliation from Canada, with restrictions placed on American bourbon, motorcycles, and other goods. Canadian businesses relying on cross-border trade—from furniture manufacturers to distillers—have reported significant revenue impacts.
The Legal Tool Trump Is Using Has Few Congressional Checks
A critical factor in this debate centres on the legal mechanism Trump has employed. The latest round of tariffs relies on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a Depression-era law that gives the president broad authority to impose duties without meaningful congressional oversight.
Unlike previous tariff tools, Section 338 contains no built-in checks and balances. This lack of congressional control has alarmed some lawmakers, who introduced legislation last month aimed at repealing the provision entirely.
Currently, Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress, giving Trump considerable latitude to pursue his tariff agenda. However, some GOP members have expressed quiet concern that escalating trade tensions could damage their re-election prospects.
What's at Stake for Canadian-American Trade
Canada's reliance on American markets—particularly in critical sectors like steel, aluminum, and energy—makes the country vulnerable to tariff pressure. However, analysts note that Canada's recent oil windfall may provide partial offset to tariff-related losses, offering some economic cushion as negotiations continue.
The November midterms will ultimately test whether American voters share Democratic concerns about tariffs on a close ally. If Congress does shift toward Democratic control, it could provide the political opening for a reset in U.S.-Canada trade relations.
This article is based on reporting from CBC World. For the full original story and additional coverage, visit CBC News.