A resounding Democratic victory in this month's U.S. midterm elections has sparked hope among some Canadians that relations between the two countries might improve. But for many, it's not enough reason to book a flight south—at least not yet.
John May, a 73-year-old from Manotick, Ontario, watched the November 3 vote results with cautious optimism. "It's encouraging, isn't it? To see that there's finally some common sense coming around down there," he said.
Yet May and his wife Patti, who abandoned their long-standing tradition of wintering in Florida last year, have no immediate plans to return. The couple spent more than a decade vacationing in the Sunshine State before what May describes as a shift toward a "toxic" atmosphere.
"We'd like to, but we're not feeling like we want to go back yet. I think we've got to wait until they've got a different president down there and a whole different attitude. Things haven't changed enough. We'll need a couple more years, I think."
— John May, Ottawa resident
Travel Numbers Tell the Story
The hesitation felt by Canadians like the Mays reflects a measurable decline in cross-border tourism. According to Statistics Canada, return trips from the U.S. to Canada plummeted by approximately 25 per cent in 2025 compared to 2024.
While October 2026 showed modest improvement—1.9 million return trips marked the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year growth—the longer-term picture remains challenging. Return car trips in October 2026 were down 29 per cent compared to the same month in 2024, while air travel dipped 19.6 per cent.
Mixed Signals on Recovery
Many Canadians with family, business, or investment interests in the U.S. have continued to cross the border despite rising tensions and tariff disputes. However, the data suggests the broader travel trend has shifted significantly.
The Democratic Party's newfound control of Congress has generated cautious optimism among some observers, who hope it signals a turning point in U.S.-Canada relations. Yet for travellers like John May, a single election result—however encouraging—isn't enough to overcome months of strained diplomacy and inflammatory rhetoric.
"We need a couple more years," May concluded, speaking for what appears to be a substantial segment of Canadian travellers reassessing their cross-border plans.
This article is based on reporting originally published by CBC Edmonton.