The NHL regular season is down to its final week, and while approximately 20 teams still harbour playoff hopes, the burning question remains: which clubs actually have what it takes to win the Stanley Cup?
The playoff picture across both conferences remains fluid in most divisions, but a clear hierarchy is emerging when you separate genuine contenders from hopeful pretenders. Here's how the legitimate Cup threats stack up as teams make their final push toward the postseason.
The Prohibitive Favourite
The Colorado Avalanche stand completely alone atop the hockey universe. Their dominance in expected goals metrics — both offensively and defensively — is simply unmatched by any other franchise. They've already clinched the Presidents' Trophy, but their path to a second Cup in three years won't be without challenge. A brutal second-round matchup looms, but Colorado remains the clear betting favourite.
The Conference Final Lock
The Edmonton Oilers belong in a tier of their own. When you examine their underlying numbers, factor in their recent defensive improvements, and consider their offensive firepower anchored by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, a third consecutive trip to the Western Conference Final appears virtually inevitable. The path through a mediocre Pacific Division — where Vegas has disappointed and Anaheim sits with negative goal differential — sets up perfectly for Edmonton.
The Proven Winners
Carolina Hurricanes will exceed 110 points and control the play like few teams in the league. Their defensive corps is elite, and they possess an ideal blend of speed and work ethic. They'll cruise through a weak Metropolitan Division.
Tampa Bay Lightning still roster proven winners and stars capable of going deep. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy getting hot at the right time could carry them further than many expect.
The Dangerous Underdogs
Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild face brutally difficult playoff paths — they play each other in Round 1 before facing Colorado — but they shouldn't be dismissed. Neither is significantly better than the hot Montreal Canadiens or Buffalo Sabres, who've been red-hot in the second half.
Montreal in particular feels like a team that simply doesn't lose lately. Buffalo's speed and momentum building could make them dangerous. The Atlantic Division offers a more attainable path to the Conference Final than the Stars and Wild face in the West.
The Bottom Line
When you strip away the noise and focus on what actually matters — goaltending — the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. Teams with reliable netminders who can steal games in April and May have always punched above their weight in May and June. Everything else is secondary.
This analysis is based on reporting from Sportsnet's coverage of the 2023-24 NHL season and playoff preparation. For complete playoff coverage and expert analysis, visit Sportsnet.ca.